Sunday, November 21

Grand Prix Final Ladies: Flatt is IN for Sure, Czisny Should Join Her

I've posted the mens and pairs likely Grand Prix Final qualifiers, and briefly alluded to the situation with the ladies heading into the final event: Trophee Eric Bompard.

Here are the standings after five events:
1. Miki Ando JPN 30 Points
2. Carolina Kostner ITA 26 Points (1st and 3rd, 319.48 points total)
3. Kanako Murakami JPN 26 Points (1st and 3rd, 315.09 points total)
4. Akiko Suzuki JPN 26 Points (2nd and 2nd, 335.60 points total)
5. Rachael Flatt USA 26 Points (2nd and 2nd, 323.90 points total)

Skaters competing in Trophee Eric Bompard:
Alissa Czisny USA (15 Points from Skate Canada)
Cynthia Phaneuf CAN (9 points from Skate Canada)
Kiira Korpi FIN (9 points from NHK Trophy)
Mirai Nagasu USA (9 points from Cup of China)
Mao Asada JPN (3 points from NHK Trophy)

What does all of this mean? The top five in the standings are all definitely in, because a win by any of the ladies aside from Czisny doesn't give any of them enough points to beat the 26 that Rachael Flatt has earned.

Czisny, on the other hand, will definitely qualify to the Final with a medal finish here. However, there is some potential for strong skating in the field, and Alissa has never exactly been known for her consistency.

If Czisny finishes in 4th AND one of Phaneuf, Korpi, or Nagasu wins, here are the totals that each of the ladies would need to beat Czisny by in order to win the tie-break and pass her in the standings for the sixth qualifying spot:

Phaneuf = 16.14 Points
Korpi= 23.94 Points
Nagasu= 26.15 Points

If Czisny finishes 5th or lower AND one of Phaneuf, Korpi, or Nagasu wins, then that lady will be the sixth qualifier to the Grand Prix Final.

If Haruka Imai can somehow sneak in for the win here (while Czisny finishes 5th), then she would have to beat Czisny by 17.84 points overall to win the tie-break and become the sixth qualifier to the Grand Prix Final.

So, discuss. Will Czisny medal in France? She looked very good at Skate Canada, but the pressure might have been off with a somewhat watered-down field. I'm sure her camp has gone over these numbers the same way I have just posted them. On the other hand, are Phaneuf, Korpi, Nagasu, Asada, and/or Imai capable of even knocking Alissa off the podium after their first event issues?


Anonymous said...

I have a feeling Alissa won't skate well at TEB but she'll still make the podium since she gets the highest PCS. I think Phaneuf will win.

Anonymous said...

It's probably just a mistake - but Mirai still represents USA, not Japan, correct? (for now at least...)

Anonymous said...

Yeah, Mirai Nagasu = Japan, WHAT??? I do hope Alissa makes it, such a nice girl and lovely skater. Hoping for at least bronze in France. Part of me keeps waiting for Mao to suprise everyone with her old perfection... but will it be in France???

Tony said...

Ha. Sorry it was late.

Anonymous said...

Mao's reworking all her jump techniques - her main priority at TEB will be to skate both her programs with a lot of speed and use correct jumping technique. That might mean just doing singles or doubles on all her jumps, but it should help her become consistent in the long run. The surprise will probably come with Japanese Nationals - she always seems to shine when performing in her home country.