Saturday, November 27

Grand Prix Final Ladies Qualification: Figuring the Numbers Out Ahead of Time..

.. so you don't have to.

Who is definitely in already? Five ladies: Miki Ando, Carolina Kostner, Kanako Murakami, Akiko Suzuki, and Rachael Flatt.

Remember, if Alissa Czisny is on the podium here, it doesn't matter what anyone else does as far as the Grand Prix Final. A top three finish means she is in.

However, in the event that Alissa finishes 4th and one of Cynthia Phaneuf, Mirai Nagasu, or Kiira Korpi wins, here are the total amount of points that each skater must beat Czisny by in the free skate here:

Phaneuf: 21.13 points. She's a long shot, sitting in sixth place after the short program.
Nagasu: 22.93 points. Still, a long long way to go and probably too many points to make up just in one free skate.
Korpi: 18.05 points. The best shot in the Czisny 4th situation, but again, that's quite a bit to make up.

If Czisny finishes 5th or lower and one of the three win, that skater will qualify to the Grand Prix Final.

If Czisny finishes in 5th place and Haruka Imai wins, she has to best Czisny in the free skate by 14.96 points. You see that she actually has the lowest difference in total points, but more work to do after being 5th in her first Grand Prix assignment.

If Czisny finishes 6th or lower and Imai wins, then she will (surprisingly) qualify herself to the Grand Prix Final (making four Japanese ladies in the group of six).

So, how is it going to end up?

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