Tuesday, November 30
The 'Patrick Chan System' Part Two: How Much Did the New Scoring Help Oda and Rippon?
My first post focused on Patrick Chan's programs at Skate Canada, as I scored them using the Code of Points from the 2009/2010 season. The end result was that he scored 8.28 points higher than he would have if the old system was still in place. I didn't think that seemed like too huge of a difference considering some of the more fine changes that were made, but then I scored Nobunari Oda and Adam Rippon's programs from the same competition to see if they also followed the trend..
Total Element Score = 44.20 (compared to his actual score, 43.37)
Program Component Score = 38.00
Total Segment Score = 82.20 (compared to his actual score, 81.37)
So he LOST 0.83 with this new system. Continuing on..
Total Element Score = 82.84 (compared to his actual score, 81.87)
Program Component Score = 74.28
Deductions = -1.00
Total Segment Score = 156.12 (compared to his actual score, 155.15)
Total Competition Score = 238.32 (compared to his actual score, 236.52)
So once again, he lost almost a point in the free skate with the new system, and he lost 1.80 points overall. Keep in mind that Patrick Chan was able to GAIN 8.28 points with the new system.
Here are Adam Rippon's scores.
Total Element Score = 41.59 (compared to his actual score, 41.10)
Program Component Score = 36.43
Total Segment Score = 78.02 (compared to his actual score, 77.53)
See a trend here? Rippon also LOST 0.49 points under the new system.
Total Element Score = 81.57 (compared to his actual score, 80.35)
Program Component Score = 75.16
Total Segment Score = 156.73 (compared to his actual score, 155.51)
Total Competition Score = 234.75 (compared to his actual score, 233.04)
Following a similar pattern to Oda, Rippon lost 1.71 points overall.
Remember that the second footwork sequences are all started on a 2.0 base value, but for purposes of this study, I've thrown in the level and GOE received at Worlds last season for Chan and Rippon, and the Grand Prix Final for Oda. If I would have kept that 2.0 and worked the GOE off of it, Oda and Rippon would have ended up with just about the same total scores in both systems.
So now the major question, where did Patrick Chan make up all of these points? This small study obviously suggests that errors are counted much less severely this year-- but are they now too small of a penalty?
For what it's worth, the final standings of Skate Canada scored under the 2009/2010 system would have looked like this:
1. Nobunari Oda 238.32 points
2. Adam Rippon 234.75 points
3. Patrick Chan 231.24 points
at 9:25 PM