Friday, December 3

Grand Prix Final Poll Results and Discussions

First, I want to thank everyone for the tremendous amount of poll responses I received when I asked which skater or team would win each of the four disciplines at the Grand Prix Final next week (760 votes for the mens event!)

Here are the final numbers, and as always-- discuss whether you agree or disagree, and share your own thoughts!

Mens Gold Medalist Votes
Daisuke Takahashi 55.66%
Takahiko Kozuka 28.95%
Patrick Chan 8.03%
Nobunari Oda 3.55%
Tomas Verner 2.89%
Florent Amodio 0.92%

So, an overwhelming majority goes for Takahashi. Yes, he's the current World Champion and yes he has yet to really deliver yet this year.. I suppose Beijing is as good as any time to do so. Kozuka in second after his great Grand Prix showing, also not surprising, but I do think the gap between he and Patrick Chan is interesting. Also, I personally am predicting Nobu Oda to be the dark horse in this whole thing, and he just barely received more votes than Tomas Verner. Interesting.

Ladies Gold Medalist Votes
Miki Ando 58.16%
Akiko Suzuki 24.88%
Carolina Kostner 4.52%
Alissa Czisny 4.36%
Rachael Flatt 4.36%
Kanako Murakami 3.72%

No surprises here, as Ando was the high scorer overall. My question is, even though the poll asked for the winner, does the closeness in numbers between Kostner, Czisny, Flatt, and Murakami suggest that there will be a tight and exciting battle for the podium?

Pairs Gold Medalist Votes
Pang/Tong 50.13%
Savchenko/Szolkowy 46.44%
Moore-Towers/Moscovitch 1.32%
Sui/Han 1.06%
Bazarova/Larionov 0.53%
Iliushechkina/Maisuradze 0.53%

Surprising that the Chinese came out on top here after the way the Germans have scored so far this year, honestly. I suppose Pang/Tong do have the home-country advantage, but we shall see. Also, I realize that the votes for the other teams were most likely votes for favorite teams rather than actual gold medal picks, but is there really a four-way battle for the bronze medal?

Dance Gold Medalist Votes
Davis/White 85.56%
Pechalat/Bourzat 11.81%
Crone/Poirier 1.05%
Bobrova/Soloviev 0.79%
Weaver/Poje 0.79%
Hoffmann/Zavozin ..I swear they were an option.

Obvious favorites here, but they have had their share of mistakes so far. Do the French have a chance if this happens again? Also, the battle for bronze probably comes down to Crone/Poirier and the Russians. Who has the edge?


Cera said...

I'm surprised at how few votes Patrick has. And I really don't expect Daisuke to win with all the mistakes he's been having. His score at Skate America wasn't very high even with the inflated PCS. I think he could even end up off the podium.

I think it's really between Patrick and Kozuka. Can't wait to see how that will turn out.

For ladies, I really have no idea. Anything could happen. Ando's injury could hold her back and Akiko could win it as long as she doesn't make any huge mistakes.

Alissa could be first or she could be last. Kostner could still medal if she's clean thanks to her PCS. I really don't see Kanako and Rachael medaling. Kanako has never been clean and the judges don't like Rachael plus she can't do a 3-3 right now.

For pairs, I think Savchenko/Szolkowy will win since they have been so much better than Pang/Tong. Pang/Tong have been really disappointing this season and I don't think they deserved to win NHK. I'm pretty sure that Bazarova/Larionov will get bronze. I would hate to see the Canadian team medal.

I'm sure a lot of people will be shocked if Pechelat/Bourzat beat Davis/White but I'm almost expecting it. I don't care for Davis/White's programs and they haven't been at their best so far this season but Nathalie and Fabian have been great. Points-wise they are really close and it could go either way. Crone/Porier will probably get bronze.

Anonymous said...

I voted for P/T in pairs because of the rumors that S/S have lost their skates/etc. and are having a terrible time practicing. Otherwise I'd've voted for them.
I think that a lot of people did not vote for Patrick Chan because they do not WANT him to win, but I think it's very likely that he will.

Anonymous said...

They have their skates back now so they should be fine. They will probably make some mistakes but still win in the end.

Anonymous said...

I picked Oda as a dark horse, as well.

I guess we shouldn't compare scores across competitions, but obviously judges have no problem giving Kozuka competitive scores. It probably would take another 4-fall performance from Chan for Kozuka to still come out ahead of him, but I believe it possible if (sadly it's a GIANT "IF") he can keep up his current consistency. I only wish he had a short program that does him as many favors as his LP does (wasn't a huge fan at first, but grew on me in China. And high score or not, it became one of my favorites in France as I was watching it.)

Anyway, I think that they're trying not to prop up Takahashi too much. Both of his wins were because his competitors made HUGE mistakes. (Components aside, his elements base score was a lot higher than Abbott's.) Obviously, if he skates better than he has been, he'll put up a (deservedly) huge score.

I'm still putting my money on Suzuki if she keeps her head together. My thinking is a bit superstitious, I know, but I think the win she should have had in Russia will catch up to her this time. I think Ando will end up ahead of Flatt no matter what (barring complete and utter disaster), and if she nails her LP, she'll probably win. So Rachael will need A LOT of help from the other 3 girls to even make podium. International judges only *grudgingly* give her competitive scores. Kanako will charm everyone once again, Kostner will get higher scores than she deserves for her watered down programs (of course, maybe not? It was easier to score her higher against her competition in both her events. Her planned tech is already lower than everyone else's, and I think she'll easily be outshone by Suzuki and Czisny, artistically.), and Alissa is a wild card. And probably tired. If she minimizes her mistakes (or, obviously, miraculously skates lights out), she'll still pull ahead of a clean Rachael.

In dance, I love both D/W and P/B. But the bronze race is definitely the most interesting to me. I'd pick the Russians to come out JUST ahead of C/P. Russia's looking for a real top team, and B/S are making a good case for themselves on paper, and making a huge statement would really solidify their place as #1 going into Russian nats. C/P are in a similar situation with V/M out right now, but I feel B/S have more at stake here. I hate both their short dances mainly for the music choices (and I've actually found myself liking the SDs of some others) and I think both free dances are fine, but I prefer B/S's style a bit more, and I'm looking for them to round out the podium.

H/Z and W/P, I think, will be a lot closer than they seem. I like both teams a lot, and I'll be interested to see who comes out with a higher finish.

Pairs, I don't even know where the rumors of S/S possibly WD are coming from, but if it's true, such a shame because I think they'd easily win. I'd never count out P/T, but they had a lot more to improve upon last time we saw them. Hopefully 5 weeks is enough to get it together.

I'm looking for M-T/M to get lost in the shuffle here, and B/L to take the next-highest finish after P/T (and hopefully S/S). Sui and Han will impress, but I don't think it's enough unless B/L really falter.

Anonymous said...

Ha, I'm glad to hear they have their skates back. I'm definitely looking (and hoping) for a win from them.

Anonymous said...

6:14, how do you know they have their skates back? Did I miss a post? 6:19, the original source of the news about the lost skates was FSU.

Anonymous said...

I picked Daisuke because of how high his scores have been relative to his marks. I know the same is true of Chan, but I expect Daisuke will have the edge based on the fact that he makes fewer mistakes than Chan. Plus, I have faith that Daisuke will be able to get it together - for Chan, I'm just not sure.

Kozuka is my favorite, but I don't think he has the edge yet.

I think Ando will breeze to victory. She has been consistent, albeit uninspiring, and I just don't see anyone else delivering. Hoping Murakami and Csizny make the podium, but I think it's going to be whichever Japanese lady is cleanest and... Rachael Flatt. :(

I think there's, like, a 1% chance Marlie lose.

In terms of pairs, I'm surprised Sui/Han received so few votes. I guess since it's for gold. I predict Savchenko/Szolkowy for gold, Pang/Tong for silver, and Sui/Han for bronze. Though, pairs isn't really a discipline I love to watch.

To be honest, I'm more excited for the JGPF. Hoping Christina Gao medals!

Anonymous said...

It was posted in the German news thread that they got their skates back.

Anonymous said...

Among the men, Takahashi, Oda and Chan haven't skated up to their potentials yet so I hope they'll bring their best at the GPF, especially Takahashi since it could well be his last chance to win this title regarding his age (even if he decides to continue competing he has to take the bolt out of his knee next season).

For the same reason, I'm hoping Suzuki to win over Ando and secure her seat on Japan's world team!

ingriddiamond said...

I think that Savchenko -Szolkowy going to win
Mens- Takahashi
-Womens- Ando-- but Carolina Kostner can give a surprise or Kanako Murakami
-Dance-My favorites Pechalat /Bourzat but Davies and White are strong... the fight for the gold is here

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure why people count out Pang and Tong so early. They did the bare minimum they needed to do to win in the GP, I'm sure they will be much better here. The Germans have their luggage back and will do well...either gold or silver. They are not the most consistant skaters so who knows what will happen. The Russians B/L should have no trouble getting the bronze. The rest of them I don't even care about, which shows the sorry state of pairs at the GPF, I can't wait until worlds.

Anonymous said...

I also have a feeling about Nobu being the dark horse here...

And I'd be very surprised it a Japanese lady doesn't take the gold.

Anonymous said...

as long as white doesn't mess up his twizzle, everything should be fine... i think it has the same points as the quad if figure skating...