Saturday, November 17

Grand Prix Final Likely Qualifiers - After Five Events

Here are the likely qualifiers for the 2012/2013 Grand Prix Final, which takes place next month in Sochi, Russia. This is the same rink that will be used during the 2014 Olympics.

Ladies

Qualified:
Ashley Wagner - 30 Points
Kiira Korpi - 26 Points
Julia Lipnitskaia - 24 Points

On the Bubble:
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva - 22 Points

Next Week:
Mao Asada - 15 Points
Akiko Suzuki - 13 Points
Agnes Zawadzki - 11 Points

Asada likely needs a top four finish at NHK to qualify to the Final. Suzuki needs a podium finish. Zawadzki would have to place in the top two.

My bets are on Asada and Suzuki to qualify at home and Tuktamysheva to slide in as the final qualifier. Christina Gao tied in results with Tuktamysheva, but loses out on overall event scores.


Men

Qualified:
Patrick Chan - 28 Points
Takahiko Kozuka - 28 Points
Tatsuki Machida - 26 Points

Next Week:
Javier Fernandez - 15 Points
Yuzuru Hanyu - 13 Points
Daisuke Takahashi - 13 Points
Sergei Voronov - 11 Points

Fernandez likely just needs a top five finish at NHK, Hanyu and Takahashi need to be on the podium to guarantee themselves a spot (although top four is more likely unless the results are crazy ahead of them). Voronov would need to finish first or second; with a second place, he'd have to beat either Hanyu or Takahashi on overall event scores if one of the two were to finish in third place.

My bets are on Fernandez, Hanyu, and Takahashi to comprise the podium in some order and all earn themselves a trip to the Final.

Kudos to Japanese men this season-- six of them have earned medals on the Grand Prix and all of them will probably finish in the top 10 of the overall standings.


Pairs

Qualified:
Volosozhar/Trankov - 30 Points
Pang/Tong - 28 Points
Kavaguti/Smirnov - 28 Points
Duhamel/Radford - 26 Points

On the Bubble:
Denney/Coughlin - 22 Points

Next Week:
Bazarova/Larionov - 13 Points
Moore-Towers/Moscovitch - 9 Points

Bazarova/Larionov likely need to finish in the top four at NHK, while Moore-Towers/Moscovitch would qualify with a top two finish. Castelli/Shnapir and Martiusheva/Rogonov would both have to win, which is a huge stretch.


Dance

(As of the time of writing this, the dance event was not complete at Trophee Eric Bompard; however, the top two teams after the short dance have enough of a cushion that this should be a safe bet.)

Qualified:
Virtue/Moir - 30 Points
(Pechalat/Bourzat - 30/28 Points)
(Cappellini/LaNotte - 28/26 Points)
Bobrova/Soloviev - 26 Points

Next Week:
Davis/White - 15 Points
Ilynikh/Katsalapov - 13 Points

Both teams would have to finish off the podium at NHK in order to not qualify.


By the Numbers

If my predictions hold true, here are the stats on the qualifiers.

RUS (7) - Lipnitskaia, Tuktamysheva, Volosozhar/Trankov, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Bazarova/Larionov, Bobrova/Soloviev, Ilynikh/Katsalapov
JPN (6) - Asada, Suzuki, Kozuka, Machida, Hanyu, Takahashi
CAN (4) - Chan, Duhamel/Radford, Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Virtue/Moir
USA (2) - Wagner, Davis/White
FIN (1) - Korpi
ESP (1) - Fernandez
CHN (1) - Pang/Tong
FRA (1) - Pechalat/Bourzat
ITA (1) - Cappellini/LaNotte

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

And if four Japanese men qualify to the GPF, only three of them can go to worlds. Sad story.

Tony said...

I alluded to the idea of having qualifiers based on Word Standing rather than by country after the ISU introduced these minimum technical score rules. I'm going to post a proposal later today about how I think the Worlds qualification system should work, if the ISU really is going to try to make it 'the best of the best'.

Anonymous said...

There is a big mistake in your article.
Since Daisuke Takahashi has won the silver medal in the CoC.

×Daisuke Takahashi - 11 Points
〇Daisuke Takahashi - 13 Points

Tony said...

Oops! You are absolutely correct. I don't know what I was thinking!

Tony said...

I have corrected the article :-)